Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
