A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
